Week 10 NFL Picks: Vikings Face an Uphill Battle as They Head to Green Bay

Week 10 NFL Picks: Vikings Face an Uphill Battle as They Head to Green Bay Josh Frey | Published : Nov 11, 2026 Follow Us Facebook Twitter Reddit WhatsApp Email Copy Link Copy Link Link Copied Folks, I feel like I’m starting to hit my groove. That’s back-to-back winning weekends for my picks as I ended Week 9 with a 10-5 against the spread after going 8-6 in Week 8. I also swept the board picking straight-up with a 15-0 record. I can’t say I’ve ever done that before. Would it have been sweeter when picking the Vikings to win? Sure, but this is a decent consolation prize. Still, there is a ton of ground to make up after a truly horrendous start to the season. As we enter the second half of the schedule, it’s a good time to start making some headway. Before we get into the Week 10 NFL picks, here is a look back at how I fared in Week 9 : JAX -9.5 (W) CIN -2.5 (W) NYG -3.5 (W) NYJ +9.5 (L) MIA +7.5 (L) DAL -5.5 (L) LAR -5.5 (W) DEN -2.5 (W) NO -1.5 (L) SF -9.5 (W) HOU -4.5 (W) GB +3.5 (W) SEA -12.5 (W) CHI -6.5 (L) BUF -3.5 (W) Season Record ATS: 57-79 Season Record Straight Up: 84-51-1 Week 10 NFL Picks Washington Commanders at New York Giants Spread: NYG -1.5 O/U: 42.5 points Frey’s Pick: NYG -1.5 J.J. McCarthy is banged up coming into this game, but the Giants are playing solid football right now, particularly on the defensive side of the football. On a short week for both teams in what is expected to be a tight matchup, it comes down to this for me: who do you trust more? Dan Quinn or John Harbaugh? I’ll take Harbaugh. New England Patriots at Detroit Lions Spread: DET -2.5 O/U: 51.5 points Frey’s Pick: DET -2.5 This game is taking place in Munich, meaning both of these teams are making long trips to get to this game. So far though, those trips haven’t exactly hindered really good offenses. The Lions are turning a corner and looking like the NFC contender that we thought they would be, and I don’t love what we’ve been getting from New England’s defense. I’ll take Detroit in this spot. Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans Spread: JAX -10.5 O/U: 45.5 points Frey’s Pick: JAX -10.5 The Jaguars are going all in after trading for Jessie Bates and Jordan Davis this week. That defense was already really good; now it’s downright scary. Tennessee has been putting up points recently, and they’re coming off a bye. I’m still taking Jacksonville to win handily. Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns Spread: HOU -4.5 O/U: 39.5 points Frey’s Pick: HOU -4.5 Houston’s offense looked way better coming out of their bye week against the Chargers last weekend. Granted, it’s the Chargers, but the Texans are 3-5. They need to have a sense of urgency the rest of the way, and there are plenty of winnable games on their remaining schedule. Their playoff hopes are far from dead, and they get a big win here to gain some ground in the AFC Wild Card race. Buffalo Bills at New York Jets Spread: BUF -7.5 O/U: 51.5 points Frey’s Pick: BUF -7.5 New York’s defense has looked horrible in recent weeks, and the Bills are waiting for a big breakout game on offense. I think we’re in 40+ points territory for Buffalo this weekend. Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons Spread: KC -3.5 O/U: 45.5 points Frey’s Pick: KC-3.5 We haven’t exactly seen the explosive Chiefs offense of old this season, but the Falcons are not good defensively and now have to go without one of their leaders, Jessie Bates, after trading him. Kansas City will methodically move the ball down the field, pick up a few explosive plays down the stretch, and pull away witha a win. Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts Spread: IND -2.5 O/U: 39.5 points Frey’s Pick: MIA +2.5 The Colts moved Josh Downs, which puts them down another pass catcher on offense. The Dolphins continue to hang around in games, but they’ve blown fourth quarter leads in three of their last four. We could be looking at a similar spot here, but I’ll take the Dolphins to cover while Indianapolis wins. Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers Spread: GB -3.5 O/U: 42.5 points Frey’s Pick: MIN +3.5 There’s a chance where this looks rough for a 38-year-old quarterback coming off a very hectic week, but man, talk about a storybook opportunity for Kirk Cousins. He’s returning to Minnesota and is playing his first game for the Vikings on the field that effectively ended his first stint. The Vikings have been an effective quarterback away from being legitimate contenders all season, Cousins knows this system very well, and he doesn’t have to be great for the Vikings to win football games. Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints Spread: NO -1.5 O/U: 48.5 points Frey’s Pick: CAR +1.5 New Orleans has completely fallen part defensively over the course of the season, and despite picking up an overtime win last weekend against the Browns, it should not have been as close as it was. I trust Carolina’s offense way more than Cleveland’s, and I think they take the win on the road. Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals Spread: LAR -9.5 O/U: 39.5 points Frey’s Pick: LAR -9.5 It looks like Carson Beck is taking over the reins for the Cardinals at quarterback this weekend, and the Rams have certainly started to find their groove, winning three straight games. This is the last game before LA’s bye before they face the Packers, Chiefs, and 49ers. With that in mind, there is a sort of “must-win” atmosphere around this game for the Rams, and I think they act like it. Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders Spread: SEA -3.5 O/U: 42.5 points Frey’s Pick: SEA -3.5 This is going to be Fernando Mendoza’s first career NFL start, and while he gets to enjoy some home cooking, he couldn’t have drawn a much tougher matchup than the defending Super Bowl champs. It’s going to be Drew Lock rather than Sam Darnold for the Seahawks, but I can’t take Mendoza in this spot. San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys Spread: SF -4.5 O/U: 54.5 points Frey’s Pick: SF -4.5 The 49ers have been the most consistent team in the NFL this year, and while the addition of Keenan Allen doesn’t mean what it would have a few years ago, he’s another pass catcher who can help fill the void left by the injury to Mike Evans. The Cowboys have given me no reason to trust them in this spot, so I’ll give this to San Francisco. Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals Spread: CIN -3.5 O/U: 48.5 points Frey’s Pick: CIN -3.5 The Steelers picked up a win the first time these two teams met, but that was in Pittsburgh and this is in Cincinnati. Neither of these teams ended up making any moves at the trade deadline, and I trust this Bengals offense to put up points at home. I’ll take Cincinnati to win and cover. Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens Spread: BAL -4.5 O/U: 39.5 points Frey’s Pick: LAC +4.5 At some point, the Los Angeles Chargers, who were viewed as a playoff contender coming into the year, have to win a football game this year. They’ve got arguably their best chance yet going against Jacoby Brissett, who is the fourth quarterback to start for the Ravens this season. Then again, Brissett did beat the Chargers earlier this season with the Arizona Cardinals. I’ll still take Los Angeles in this case given how rocky Baltimore’s defense has been. Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference helped with this article. Discover more from Vikings Territory Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email. Type your email… Subscribe By Josh Frey Josh Frey is a senior writer at both PurplePTSD.com and VikingsTerritory.com, with a fascination for the NFL Draft. To ... More about Josh Frey